Iran: 4/13/12- 4/19/12

The negotiations between Iran and the world’s major powers took place over this weekend. To give you the best visual representation of how I interpreted the meetings went this weekend I would like you to watch this 30 second clip from the movie Madagascar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvYBZRwwGB4&feature=related

The penguins in this clip are Iran. Every diplomat from the major power’s side coming out of that meeting each believed that the meeting was a success, because they felt that Iran was willing to negotiate the control of their nuclear weapons. The whole purpose of this meeting was merely for the diplomats from the major powers to put their toe in the water, and they found the water was perfect. They left believing that Iran is wholeheartedly willing to negotiate. To be honest, I believe that all Iran has done is “smiled and waved” while they continue to work on their weapons for the time being. The next meeting to start to discuss the negotiations isn’t until next month. This gives Iran additional time with not very much pressure to continue working on their nuclear program. Iran has played every aspect of the negotiations perfectly. At first they gave the appearance that they were reluctant on the venue of the negotiations. Iran effectively made the major powers feel that they would be lucky to have Iran show up at all to the negotiations. When Iran actually did show up, the major powers would feel grateful to them for coming, putting the major powers at a disadvantage from the very beginning of the process. Next, Iran put on their best face and acted politely. This reassured the major power’s diplomats that only good things were to come. This removed Iran slightly off the hot seat they have been on, and will allow them to continue their work on their nuclear weapons. As has been suspected before, this appears to be merely a stall tactic. If Iran comes to the next meeting in May with the real intention of giving up their nuclear weapons, I will be thoroughly shocked. Instead, I anticipate another political subterfuge which will not end well for the major powers.

Iran: 4/6/12-4/12/12

This Tuesday Iran made another incredible move; they declared that they had captured an Israeli-backed ‘Terrorist Team’. Iran claimed to have captured the members of this terrorist team before they were able to initiate the plan; however no evidence was provided that there actually was a team, in fact no specific plan was even mentioned within the article. This could just mean that they picked up a group of men, that they “thought” were about to attack Iran. Next, Iranian intelligence officials said it had captured the members of the terrorist team with, “heavy bombs, machine guns, handguns, silencers, military and telecommunications equipment and other terrorist tools”(Washington Post 1). All of these materials could have easily been planted as well. So the probability that Iran has actually captured an Israeli-backed terrorist team is nil, but the possibility that Israel would attempt an insurgency in Iran exists and that is all Iran needs. I believe the real attempt made by Iran here is to grab some bargaining chips before the all-important talks between them and the major world powers only a few days from now. First, the threat from Azerbaijan, and now this possible terrorist team provides Iran with some breathing room. They can add this to their arsenal of counter-attacks that they will be bringing with them to a meeting that will certainly have them on the defensive. Anything that they can throw back at their attackers will certainly come appreciated, even if they have to invent it themselves. All of these examples can engender support for Iran’s claim that a nuclear weapon is merely for defensive purposes, because with all of these “dangers” to their national security, they need some defensive measures. It will certainly be interesting to watch these upcoming nuclear arms talks this weekend to see if any progress can be made.   

Washington Post 1- http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-says-it-captured-israel-backed-terrorist-team/2012/04/10/gIQA8I3I8S_story.html

Iran: 3/29/12-4/5/12

Well it seems that the next round of talks with the European Union that were supposed to occur in the coming weeks are not going to be a reality.  Iran has had problems establishing a fair and appropriate place for the talks with the European Union. This seems only to be a delay tactic. Most believe that they are going to try and hold off the talks until the last possible moment. Iran may believe that the economic sanctions will not start to hurt them before a point that Israel makes the first move. Earlier this week my SRA Professor told us that Israel had been caught fueling their planes for a strike, but the plan was somehow leaked and eventually scraped. This was false, but on the other hand, over the weekend Israel edited a weapons deal with Azerbaijan that now allows them to land their planes on Azerbaijan airfields. Although this does help the plan to strike Iran, the major problem of refueling the planes in the air before the strike is still at large. This evidence is now changing the question of if Israel will strike, to when Israel will strike. It is this very question that is pushing Iran to delay talks. If they can wait for Israel to strike without giving up any of their nuclear program, then Iran no longer becomes an enemy but a victim, and a victim with their nuclear program intact. The difference between these two words is critical in the political arena. As the enemy, Iran’s nuclear program is seen as a world threat. As a victim, Iran’s nuclear program may be seen solely as an act of self-defense to prevent further military strikes. Although such a change in public perception is unlikely, a strike will certainly bring back Iran some support in the world at a time when they seem to have lost touch with all allies. Although the talks could proceed, at this point in time it seems unlikely.

Iran: 3/23/12-3/29/12

Well it seems new talks have now been confirmed for April 13^th. The location of these talks is still in discussion but it seems they will probably be held in Istanbul, Turkey, between the six major powers, U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran.

            The main message I want to talk about during this blog is: How do we know if Iran tests a nuclear weapon? Well this week I actually learned a little bit about this in my earthquake class. My professor said that usually a nuclear detonation, or any detonation for that matter, will show a p-wave that is larger than average compared to an s-wave in a seismogram. The p-wave is usually the first wave of an earthquake and causes minimal damage, while an s-wave is slower and causes most of the damage that comes from an earthquake. Here is an example of a typical earthquake seismogram:

Note that the wave initially after the red line, the p-wave, is comparatively smaller than the larger waves, the s-waves, behind it. This was a 4.8 earthquake in Iran only three days ago. Now let’s take a look at another earthquake that occurred in Iran only four days ago from the same seismometer:

Note how this time the p-waves are considerably larger compared to the s-waves. This is a good sign that it could be a weapons test. Although it is incredibly unlikely that Iran would let such detailed information about this “test” be allowed on the Tehran University website, one can never know. In the end, this test is more than likely just another small earthquake on the plains of Iran. But it is this kind of information that American geologists are reviewing daily so that they can be ready if Iran really tests one of their nuclear weapons.

 http://irsc.ut.ac.ir/newsview.php?eventid=59323&network=earth_ismc__

Iran: 3/15/12-3/22/12

In the continuing see-saw dialogues between the United States and Israel on their strategies towards Iran, the Israeli Minister of Defense came out and said today, “Israel and the U.S. disagree on what would be a realistic timetable for stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons” (The Washington Post 1). At this point only one conclusion can be drawn, the U.S. is trying its hardest to delay an offensive strike on Iran by Israel. It seems it is not a question of if Israel will strike Iran but when. Let’s take a look at the Iran situation through the eyes of Israel. Israel has long been hated by its surrounding Muslim nations and therefore, Israel has built up a reputation of striking first, talking later. Being surrounded and severely out-numbered, Israel already feels threatened by others, but the instant one of its neighbors might have control of a nuclear weapon, they resort to their basic instincts. Israel sees the United States as an ally, but an ally that lives thousands of miles away. In the eyes of Israel, the consequences of Iran having a nuclear weapon are much more severe for Israel than for the United States. One of the major reasons why Israel has been left alone for so long is that they themselves own a nuclear weapon, and have a record for military dominance. This reputation is what protects them, and allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon will severely hurt their reputation. It is not surprising that Israel sees a military strike as the sole option to end the Iran conflict. It worked in the past when Israel took out nuclear plants in Syria and Iraq, why wouldn’t it work now? It seems the one thing that Israel forgets is that all previous attacks were surprise attacks. At this point, if Iran is not prepared for a military strike, they should be embarrassed. Now all we can do is wait and see if Israel actually goes through with a strike that could begin a Nuclear War.

Washington Post 1- http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israeli-defense-minister-says-israel-and-us-disagree-on-timetable-for-effective-iran-action/2012/03/22/gIQArjFBTS_story.html

Iran 2/23/12-3/15/12

Many events have occurred over the last few weeks. It is now officially confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei holds all of the power in the Iranian government as proven by last week’s elections. In the 290-member parliament only 64 seats are still being contested with the remainder having been “won” by those in favor of Khamenei. Before the election even began, Khamenei exercised his right as Supreme Leader to choose who was allowed to run for the seats in parliament, and through those means he was able to eliminate many of the supporters of President Ahmadinejad. This now leaves President Ahmadinejad as a lame-duck president, but at the present moment he has even more pressing issues. President Ahmadinejad has made history as the first President since 1979 to be summoned in front of parliament. This week President Ahmadinejad was called upon to answer questions about his economic and foreign policies as well as his 11-day absence following Khamenei’s re-appointment of an Intelligence Minister previously fired by Ahmadinejad, which some say was an act of rebellion in response to Khamenei’s position. After attributing the 11-day excursion to simply being just a break from the stress of the job, Ahmadinejad finished up by saying, “Be fair. Any grade less than a 20 [out of 20] will be rude” (BBC). If somebody has to say that they have done a good job and deserve to be rewarded for it, then they haven’t done a good job. A good job should be noticeable and self-evident and it is unnecessary to have to audibly pat oneself on the back for a job well done. This can also be seen with the repetitive reassurances by President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu that they are on the same page about their plan to control Iran’s nuclear development. This rhetoric actually serves as reinforcement that they are in fact not on the same page. I am still waiting to see if in the next short months Israel decides to strike Iran without US support.

BBC-http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17364370

Iran Revolution 1979

This week I decided to look at the history behind the government in Iran that we see today. So how exactly did Ayatollah Khomeini come into power?

            Like the beginnings of most dictatorships, it began with another dictator. This dictator was called Mohammed Reza Shah. He operated his government like the great Soviet Union, making sweeping promises, and was hyper vigilant to any signs of opposition. His greatest watchdog, the Savak, terrorized the country. Even in times of economic growth when dictators are usually safe from being overthrown, there was great opposition against the Shah. Ayatollah Khomeini led the opposition against the Shah, even from exile in France. When the Shah handed over his government to the new Prime Minister, Shapour Bakhtiar, on January 16, 1979, the gates broke open for Ayatollah. It was only a month until Ayatollah made his way back to his home country. The new Prime Minister, seeing his future decline rapidly, fled from the country only a few days later. Several months after this, on April 1, a national referendum took place to elect the new form of government. The entirety of the ballot would have looked like this:

Islamic Republic: Yes or No

It was not surprising that Ayatollah achieved a “landslide” victory. Shortly after this election, Ayatollah declared a new Islamic constitution establishing him as the supreme spiritual leader of the country, and that, as they say, was that.

            A few more Iranian “President’s” later and it is present day Iran. Usually the position of President occupies the seat of power, but not so in Iran. Ayatollah saw what happened when the Shah left his government to another man, allowing Ayatollah to seize control, and Ayatollah will certainly not make that mistake. Although it is not his name that appears in news articles about Iran, he is clearly the chief puppeteer, making certain that he is pulling the strings behind every decision being made in Iran. 

http://www.iranchamber.com/history/islamic_revolution/islamic_revolution.php