Iran: 4/13/12- 4/19/12

The negotiations between Iran and the world’s major powers took place over this weekend. To give you the best visual representation of how I interpreted the meetings went this weekend I would like you to watch this 30 second clip from the movie Madagascar:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvYBZRwwGB4&feature=related

The penguins in this clip are Iran. Every diplomat from the major power’s side coming out of that meeting each believed that the meeting was a success, because they felt that Iran was willing to negotiate the control of their nuclear weapons. The whole purpose of this meeting was merely for the diplomats from the major powers to put their toe in the water, and they found the water was perfect. They left believing that Iran is wholeheartedly willing to negotiate. To be honest, I believe that all Iran has done is “smiled and waved” while they continue to work on their weapons for the time being. The next meeting to start to discuss the negotiations isn’t until next month. This gives Iran additional time with not very much pressure to continue working on their nuclear program. Iran has played every aspect of the negotiations perfectly. At first they gave the appearance that they were reluctant on the venue of the negotiations. Iran effectively made the major powers feel that they would be lucky to have Iran show up at all to the negotiations. When Iran actually did show up, the major powers would feel grateful to them for coming, putting the major powers at a disadvantage from the very beginning of the process. Next, Iran put on their best face and acted politely. This reassured the major power’s diplomats that only good things were to come. This removed Iran slightly off the hot seat they have been on, and will allow them to continue their work on their nuclear weapons. As has been suspected before, this appears to be merely a stall tactic. If Iran comes to the next meeting in May with the real intention of giving up their nuclear weapons, I will be thoroughly shocked. Instead, I anticipate another political subterfuge which will not end well for the major powers.

Iran: 4/6/12-4/12/12

This Tuesday Iran made another incredible move; they declared that they had captured an Israeli-backed ‘Terrorist Team’. Iran claimed to have captured the members of this terrorist team before they were able to initiate the plan; however no evidence was provided that there actually was a team, in fact no specific plan was even mentioned within the article. This could just mean that they picked up a group of men, that they “thought” were about to attack Iran. Next, Iranian intelligence officials said it had captured the members of the terrorist team with, “heavy bombs, machine guns, handguns, silencers, military and telecommunications equipment and other terrorist tools”(Washington Post 1). All of these materials could have easily been planted as well. So the probability that Iran has actually captured an Israeli-backed terrorist team is nil, but the possibility that Israel would attempt an insurgency in Iran exists and that is all Iran needs. I believe the real attempt made by Iran here is to grab some bargaining chips before the all-important talks between them and the major world powers only a few days from now. First, the threat from Azerbaijan, and now this possible terrorist team provides Iran with some breathing room. They can add this to their arsenal of counter-attacks that they will be bringing with them to a meeting that will certainly have them on the defensive. Anything that they can throw back at their attackers will certainly come appreciated, even if they have to invent it themselves. All of these examples can engender support for Iran’s claim that a nuclear weapon is merely for defensive purposes, because with all of these “dangers” to their national security, they need some defensive measures. It will certainly be interesting to watch these upcoming nuclear arms talks this weekend to see if any progress can be made.   

Washington Post 1- http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-says-it-captured-israel-backed-terrorist-team/2012/04/10/gIQA8I3I8S_story.html

Iran: 3/29/12-4/5/12

Well it seems that the next round of talks with the European Union that were supposed to occur in the coming weeks are not going to be a reality.  Iran has had problems establishing a fair and appropriate place for the talks with the European Union. This seems only to be a delay tactic. Most believe that they are going to try and hold off the talks until the last possible moment. Iran may believe that the economic sanctions will not start to hurt them before a point that Israel makes the first move. Earlier this week my SRA Professor told us that Israel had been caught fueling their planes for a strike, but the plan was somehow leaked and eventually scraped. This was false, but on the other hand, over the weekend Israel edited a weapons deal with Azerbaijan that now allows them to land their planes on Azerbaijan airfields. Although this does help the plan to strike Iran, the major problem of refueling the planes in the air before the strike is still at large. This evidence is now changing the question of if Israel will strike, to when Israel will strike. It is this very question that is pushing Iran to delay talks. If they can wait for Israel to strike without giving up any of their nuclear program, then Iran no longer becomes an enemy but a victim, and a victim with their nuclear program intact. The difference between these two words is critical in the political arena. As the enemy, Iran’s nuclear program is seen as a world threat. As a victim, Iran’s nuclear program may be seen solely as an act of self-defense to prevent further military strikes. Although such a change in public perception is unlikely, a strike will certainly bring back Iran some support in the world at a time when they seem to have lost touch with all allies. Although the talks could proceed, at this point in time it seems unlikely.