Iran: 2/17/2012-2/23/12

Iran made two major moves this week. The first, they warned Israel and the United States that if they felt they were going to be attacked, they would make a preemptive strike. Many Security Advisers for the US have been trying for a couple years now to determine whether in the strategic realm Iran is acting as a rational opportunist or a paranoid victim. A rational opportunist will remain calm under pressure and not make any outlandish attacks in the process. A paranoid victim feels threatened by pressure and will attack at any moment. To give an example, when you corner someone, they feel they have no other option than to lash out. The ultimate enemy will act as a paranoid victim even though they are a rational opportunist. This means that they can take advantage of the benefits that you may give to satiate a paranoid victim, while also being able to complete their goals efficiently. Most advisers fear that this is what Iran is. They believe that Iran is a rational opportunist that is acting as a paranoid victim in order to gain some leniency from the US. It is those types of statements above that lead advisers to believe they are a paranoid victims, but at the same time it seems as if they are stalling to create a nuclear weapon. Not only that, but the second major move that Iran made this week was to kick the IAEA out from Iran when the IAEA were barred to see a key military testing facility. It is these kind of actions that show Iran as being a rational opportunist, working behind closed doors to achieve their goals of a nuclear weapon. These two actions this week seem to be proving the theory that Iran is a rational opportunist acting as a paranoid victim. Below is a good map of Iran's current nuclear facilities:

                                                                http://en.rian.ru/infographics/20120120/170858830.html

Iran: 2/10/2012-2/16/2012

This week has been one of the more eventful ones for Iran. Iran’s nuclear power plant has finally gone operational. After weeks and years of preparation, Iran now holds the ability to enrich their uranium. Although they say they will merely enrich the uranium to use it for their energy program and not enrich it to weapons-grade uranium, the question is still remains in the air. The IAEA will be visiting again next week, and hopefully this time they will actually negotiate. Late last week, word was passed around that Iranian President Ahmadinejad was ready to begin negotiations, but this was meant with news that several Israeli diplomats in Georgia, and India were attempted to be assassinated. Whether it was Iran behind these attacks is still a major concern. Nonetheless this has put another huge dent in the road, as well as the fact that this week President Ahmadinejad told the European Union that Iran plans to stop sending oil to the EU long before the European Union planned on boycotting the Iranian oil this summer. This has led the USS Abraham Lincoln, a United States Aircraft carrier, to make a second pass through the waters near the Strait of Hormuz as a message to the Iranians saying that any attempts to close the Strait would be met with force.

                                            http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-02-14/news/31057574_1_suicide-attack-hormuz-strait

 Right at the end of last week, all seemed that the Iranians would finally be giving in to negotiations over their nuclear energy/weapons program, but this week has seen a lot more action than was hoped for. Hopefully with the IAEA visiting Iran, for the second time this month, next week, additional progress can be made on negotiations before one more small mishap creates an international catastrophe.

Iran: 2/3/2012-2/9/2012

Surprisingly this week, amid all of the turmoil that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejed has had to face internationally, Iran’s parliament has called their President into their chambers to answer questions on current economic and foreign policy decisions. In the middle of fighting world powers for the right to maintain the nuclear power program, President Mahmoud must also fight for his political career domestically. Currently in Iran there seems to be a power struggle between President Mahmoud and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In the Iranian political system, the President may make decisions he sees fit, but at the end of the day it is the Supreme Leader that holds all of the power. It is the Supreme Leader who can challenge, change, or overrule any decisions made by the President. Originally, Mahmoud was the prodigy of Khamenei, but as of late nothing could be farther from the truth. Mahmoud has been struggling to maintain afloat in the Iranian political system, and Mahmoud’s future truly lies on March 1. This is when Iran will be holding its elections and the fate of Mahmoud. Mahmoud and his allies will be facing off against the Supreme Leader’s political group for control of the parliament. This power struggle has truly taken away the credibility of the Iranian leader that is at the same time trying to hold nuclear arms talks with major world powers. If Mahmoud’s party fails to win a fair amount of the elections, Mahmoud will have a tough time trying to bargain with world powers especially with having to answer to this very parliament about his economic and foreign policy decisions in a month’s time. It is good to see that the many problems we have in America at this time that are hindering President Obama’s ability to bargain about the future of Iran’s nuclear program, seems to also be plaguing President Mahmoud in Iran. The shortly coming events that are ahead for Iran’s power struggle will hold a major impact in the eventual talks over the future of Iran’s nuclear program.  

BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16928642

Iran: 1/27/2012-2/2/2012

The U.S. intelligence community announced earlier this week that Iran is willing to strike the US through terrorist means (The Washington Post 3). This comes at the same time that IAEA’s trip to Iran has come to an end bearing no result. The team that visited Iran could not come to any formal decision with Iran, but instead have scheduled to have another round of talks later this month. Israel has denounced this as a delay tactic, which it may very well be, but in most cases it does take some time for diplomacy to run its course. This Wednesday, Israel announced that Iran’s bunkers would not be sufficient to withhold an aerial assault from destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons. Also recently the, “U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently said even the most sophisticated U.S. bunker-buster bombs aren’t powerful enough to penetrate all of Iran’s defenses”(Washington Post 1). This suggests that Israel and the US are attempting two different strategies in order to negotiate with Iran to remove these weapons. Israel is using a very strong hard line deterrence strategy in which they are stating that if Iran doesn’t eliminate their nuclear weapons program, Israel will strike those nuclear facilities. They see Iran as a rational opportunist that sees controlling nuclear weapons as a critical part of becoming a strong state. Today, Israel’s defense minister even stated that time was nearing to strike Iran, because new evidence suggests Iran is implementing new measures to protect their facilities further (The Washington Post 2).

 The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (The Washington Post 2)

This again also pressures Iran to make a decision about the future of their program earlier than they want, as for the last weeks they have attempted to push off any decision. The US, on the other hand, is trying to placate Iran. They want Iran to feel calm, because the US sees Iran as a paranoid victim that will lash out with its nuclear weapons if it feels threatened. That is why the US is trying to reassure Iran that attacking is not in their immediate interests, but they do want Iran to know that the US will attack if necessary.

Washington Post 1: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israels-military-chief-iran-could-have-nuclear-weapons-capability-within-a-year/2012/02/01/gIQAgiHJiQ_story.html

Washington Post 2: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/barak-says-time-running-out-for-action-against-irans-nuclear-program/2012/02/02/gIQAZFm5kQ_story.html

Washington Post 3: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-is-prepared-to-launch-terrorist-attacks-in-us-intelligence-report-finds/2012/01/30/gIQACwGweQ_story.html