Iran made two major moves this week. The first, they warned
Israel and the United States that if they felt they were going to be attacked,
they would make a preemptive strike. Many Security Advisers for the US have
been trying for a couple years now to determine whether in the strategic realm
Iran is acting as a rational opportunist or a paranoid victim. A rational
opportunist will remain calm under pressure and not make any outlandish attacks
in the process. A paranoid victim feels threatened by pressure and will attack
at any moment. To give an example, when you corner someone, they feel they have
no other option than to lash out. The ultimate enemy will act as a paranoid
victim even though they are a rational opportunist. This means that they can
take advantage of the benefits that you may give to satiate a paranoid victim,
while also being able to complete their goals efficiently. Most advisers fear
that this is what Iran is. They believe that Iran is a rational opportunist
that is acting as a paranoid victim in order to gain some leniency from the US.
It is those types of statements above that lead advisers to believe they are a
paranoid victims, but at the same time it seems as if they are stalling to
create a nuclear weapon. Not only that, but the second major move that Iran
made this week was to kick the IAEA out from Iran when the IAEA were barred to
see a key military testing facility. It is these kind of actions that show Iran
as being a rational opportunist, working behind closed doors to achieve their
goals of a nuclear weapon. These two actions this week seem to be proving the
theory that Iran is a rational opportunist acting as a paranoid victim. Below is a good map of Iran's current nuclear facilities:
http://en.rian.ru/infographics/20120120/170858830.html
The fact that they did not allow the IAEA to see what they were doing behind closed doors means one of two things. They're making weapons or they want us to think they're making weapons. I hope it's the latter because the idea of a nation like Iran having a nuclear arsenal is unsettling.
ReplyDeleteThis gives me horrible flash backs to Poly Sci 014. Not that I didn't like the material, but god the professor was horrible. It seems that Iran is going to try and portray themselves as a paranoid victim. They get so much more out of this, than if they were a rational opportunist. The United States and Europe are treating Iran with kid gloves because they are acting like they will explode at any moment. I think Iran is well aware of how much power they have when they act like a paranoid victim and I doubt they are looking to give up that power anytime soon.
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