Iran: 1/27/2012-2/2/2012

The U.S. intelligence community announced earlier this week that Iran is willing to strike the US through terrorist means (The Washington Post 3). This comes at the same time that IAEA’s trip to Iran has come to an end bearing no result. The team that visited Iran could not come to any formal decision with Iran, but instead have scheduled to have another round of talks later this month. Israel has denounced this as a delay tactic, which it may very well be, but in most cases it does take some time for diplomacy to run its course. This Wednesday, Israel announced that Iran’s bunkers would not be sufficient to withhold an aerial assault from destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons. Also recently the, “U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently said even the most sophisticated U.S. bunker-buster bombs aren’t powerful enough to penetrate all of Iran’s defenses”(Washington Post 1). This suggests that Israel and the US are attempting two different strategies in order to negotiate with Iran to remove these weapons. Israel is using a very strong hard line deterrence strategy in which they are stating that if Iran doesn’t eliminate their nuclear weapons program, Israel will strike those nuclear facilities. They see Iran as a rational opportunist that sees controlling nuclear weapons as a critical part of becoming a strong state. Today, Israel’s defense minister even stated that time was nearing to strike Iran, because new evidence suggests Iran is implementing new measures to protect their facilities further (The Washington Post 2).

 The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (The Washington Post 2)

This again also pressures Iran to make a decision about the future of their program earlier than they want, as for the last weeks they have attempted to push off any decision. The US, on the other hand, is trying to placate Iran. They want Iran to feel calm, because the US sees Iran as a paranoid victim that will lash out with its nuclear weapons if it feels threatened. That is why the US is trying to reassure Iran that attacking is not in their immediate interests, but they do want Iran to know that the US will attack if necessary.

Washington Post 1: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israels-military-chief-iran-could-have-nuclear-weapons-capability-within-a-year/2012/02/01/gIQAgiHJiQ_story.html

Washington Post 2: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/barak-says-time-running-out-for-action-against-irans-nuclear-program/2012/02/02/gIQAZFm5kQ_story.html

Washington Post 3: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-is-prepared-to-launch-terrorist-attacks-in-us-intelligence-report-finds/2012/01/30/gIQACwGweQ_story.html